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Attention, attention with the City of Buenos Aires -

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Long discussion: which of the three is best to beat the macrismo "Filmus, Boudou or Taken? The Baldwin Buenos Aires discusses what to do to broaden the base Feedback in the city

If in the early stages of the cycle Kirchner some saw as a daring that

said that Government was "to the left of "society, today, with a different political culture, one might suggest that Cristina Kirchner seems to be often left to their own political space. So if being left "has to do with the idea to innovate, to open the game, posts more than the speeches solace in the closure, attack your opponents or the eulogy of done. It was the President that stimulated discussion that is taking place in Buenos Aires kirchnerismo about how candidate and how social summoned macrismo must face, in line with what he said on Wednesday while inaugurating a building of the Faculty of Science Economical: we are better because it established "floor debate, but you have to sharpen the pencil to see how government policies become more gente.Sobre stage of elections for head of government is a good and bad news.
The good: less than one year ago thinking it a good choice since Kirchner seemed ridiculous Capital was (said this dangerously) a district "enemy." The bad news: the kirchnerismo reach the second round but polls now speak of a triumph macrista. There is no way to win if you do not open and polish the questioning, speeches, proposals, apart from reassuring simplification demonize the middle classes as if they were an all homogéneo.A unlike what happens in other political arenas, the relationship between Daniel Filmus, Carlos Tomada and Amado Boudou is good, much more affectionate in the top two. Less loving is the cross with such surveys should help to discuss which candidate suits the Kirchner. The average of the studies show that today the best Daniel Filmus is positioned. The exceptions are the numbers which has insisted Artemio López, who works for the candidacy of Boudou. Filmus entrusts Enrique Zuleta Puceiro measurements. And Gerardo Adrogué Taken works, which has a lower profile than his colleagues (did research in the ministry, often works to the outside), even though it is more respected in their midst. Type Entrador, enormously sympathetic and fine communication analyst kirchnerismo limits, Artemio Lopez argues that Boudou is the candidate best positioned. According to their numbers, the economy minister to lose 23.7 percent of the vote against 31.3 for Michetti and Filmus would be the worst: 21 percent against 36.4 for Michetti. Ever, in his own blog too often, Artemio Lopez hinted that from time to force their numbers defending hypotheses. Did not say exactly how, but in a sunny disposition. This time there Kirchner (politicians, activists, consultants) slightly irritated.

Peronism-liberalism.

Outside the numbers there are arguments being developed by the Equis consulting that are interesting to discuss. According to him, his gentle ways and not ideological or perhaps because of his rubiez, Boudou is the one to win new votes. He said in an interview that the Minister "may discuss a percentage of independent voters and some of the periphery of macrista vote." A deeper issue is the attack that has maintained, a somewhat cruel way against the troubled progress, and calling the "ladriprogresismo" and presumed dead. The undersigned shares many criticisms of certain liberal softness. But the criticism seems aimed interested López Filmus, it is unfair if a stroke destroys management Aníbal Ibarra (who deserves to be reassessed at least in opposition to that of Macri) and excluded from the history and the social and political map actually existing transverse joints that define the kichnerismo space is, which is vastly more than that pejotismo and peronismo.Tanto Hugo Haime as Zuleta Filmus say is the best positioned to compete with macrismo. For the first, the senator would get 25.9 percent (Boudou the 17.4) of the votes against 34.3 for Michetti. Zuleta says something similar, though with only 15.6 Boudou. Ricardo Rouvier agreed that the three candidates to win Michetti hovering between 30 and 33 percent, while Filmus appears again first among the candidates. If by the strengths and weaknesses of each candidate, a map may, of opinion, would be this:

* Daniel Filmus.

For trajectory as former Minister of Education in the City and the nation, having competed with Macri, is the best positioned in terms of knowledge. His public exposure has not hurt the case of a Kirchner known and is probably the most "mainstream" of the three. Long that advantage and greater presence in the media. Has some diligent student, meaning that it is consistent when talking about the city and the lack of management Macri. In the previous season he looked a bit uncomfortable with the logic of the media debate show, now shows a greater ease and firmness. Big one: the intention of voting takes is a picture of your current installation. It's also a possible weakness with voters, lovers of novelty-the fact of being just another politician worn.

* Amado Boudou.

figure has something cool in the kirchnerismo but also a newcomer to some troops of its own and part of the membership. In computing will be important decisions cristina cycle. Girls die for him (not the most combative). Boudou said Artemio López has the advantage of novelty, which adds more capacity than liberalism represented by Filmus, that "the coming of the executive is more effective in terms of management, the weakest point of Macri. Boudou discussed with less ideology. " For the writer, the alleged advantage may become otherwise when the mainstream media to campaign emphasizing support for a sector Boudou frowned upon by many of the locals: the CGT trade union. And do not miss the Carrió that bind to "corruption of De Vido," his best support in the cabinet. His speech on the city, for now, is superficial, although sympathetic Chicano.

* Carlos Tomada.

may be a surprise but started as a third party. It has a great advantage over its competitors and a big disadvantage. It is the most loved and respected in the cabinet perhaps "the best Kirchner" in the internal power bases and politicized.
but started late and with little installation of your name. Say about the presidency that "Boudou was a play to be decided Taken", which was taken it took to decide and when encountered by the President's idea to run, she told him: "I will respond with a sentence of a former president in his Maoist period, 'Let a thousand flowers bloom'. "In the days following the team Taken bet for lost time, both through a respected peer armed much as a greater presence in the media, "betting to present it as someone who would implement the" best of the best government policies, applied to the city ". And thus vindicating Taken as "the best labor minister in the last 50 years" as "the best city Kirchner." Gerardo

Adrogué agree that today, almost tied with Boudou, Taken is several points Filmus. But he adds that the Minister of Labour has advantages. The first: since there is a third of voters who do not know, its growth potential and empathy is much larger than the others. Second, the negative image of Boudou, more fitted, more than Taken (36 percent to 25). Third, has attributes ("a management leader, a doer, someone who resolves conflicts") that appeal to many locals disappointed with what has been done either by Ibarra and Macri. Be seen whether the virtues of a "great Kirchner" as it is a "great manager" permeate the very complex or non-Kirchner electorate filokirchnerista Buenos Aires, where very complex is not necessarily unfriendly, but diverse. That diversity

publicist knows Fernando Braga Menendez, one of the outstanding members Taken team, which also launched a web 2.0. He also knows the item, the consultant Ricardo Rouvier, who warned several weeks ago on his blog that "some leaders and activists believe that the leadership election of Cristina in the city is sufficient to impose a candidate for head of government, but the reality is that this is not is automatic and is modified according to conditions (...) There is a local component in the election can not be disregarded. "Necessarily, also wrote Rouvier, win in second round involves having to vote does not own. According to their logic, "Peronize" campaign in a district like the Buenos Aires would be rather risky, as well as decree the death of liberalism. Another variable to consider, says the consultant, and is the bet you finish doing the Sabbatella Capital. The former mayor of Moron does not seem inclined to support Boudou. But it has other potential caroms in a scenario in which the submission of the Sabbatella, Filmus lose progressive votes or cross. The discussion about who the best candidate for Capital Kirchner gets really nice.

The Hudsucker

Although it is known to what extent changed the political map in the last year, check the progress numbers in a long cycle astonish. In the first survey did Adrogué Gerardo Carlos Tomada is historicized this development based on the climate of 2009. Then only if 20 percent of Buenos Aires approved the presidential administration, compared with 75 of rejection. In February, the poll found 47 percent approval of rejection to 43 (there is a drop in approval in relation to November, after the death of Kirchner). That almost half of the locals support it by the Government is important for local elections, 36.8 percent said Zuleta Puceiro, think of the national vote before prime minister.